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Is a global recession on the way?

Fireworks night has passed, now only six weeks until Christmas, however the unseasonably warm weather means that any focus on Christmas activity will be late.

For those not keen on the over commercialisation of Christmas there will be glee, but for retailers, hospitality businesses and organisations that have greater demand over the Christmas break, the late activity will push patience, resources and in some cases cash flow to the limit!

It has been a tough year for many businesses – I can’t imagine any business plan that would have allowed for a war in the Ukraine, fuel price crisis, extreme weather events, high inflation, continuing rises in interest rates and then a war in the middle east!

I fear there are tougher times ahead, the increased number of small business closures, the downbeat figures on the housing market and now the trickle through to manufacturers will see the unemployment figures rise.

Wall Street experts last week were expressing concerns about a global recession… again. “Geopolitical risk is a major component in shaping all our lives. We are having rising fear throughout the world, and less hope. Rising fear creates a withdrawal from consumption or spending more. So, fear creates recessions in the long run, and if we continue to have rising fear, the probability of a European recession grows and the probability of a US recession grows.”

That’s a gloomy start to your monthly update but we know it is essential to have a good grounding on the financial outlook so that decisions made now don’t come to haunt later!

Making the most of every opportunity now is important and, if possible, banking some cash for rainy days would be wise. There is a school of thought that says you can talk yourself into a recession, which is true. Taking the right steps to see yourself trading the other side of a recession is a measured approach to future success.


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