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Do you remember the headlines about Green Shoots of recovery?

Our current headlines are about: bitter leadership battles, deadly heatwaves, below inflation pay rises – todays media can control the mood of the nation and bad news always gets more interest than good news.

New leader to replace Boris….. A real Summer returns to the UK……. Salary increases for millions…..

If Boris was so bad, we should be pleased to have a new leader. We moan about summers, and how they can pass without a week of sunshine and, whilst the pay increases are below inflation, the RPI is unusually high because of the energy prices which are expected to come down. Crude Oil is already coming down – RPI will follow.

The consumer confidence index dropped in July to -41 from 40. GfK client strategy director Joe Staton said “UK annual inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1% in May amid rising food and energy prices, the highest among G7 economies. The country’s economy also contracted both in March and April, raising the likelihood of a recession this year.” source: GfK Group

The index is sitting at the lowest number since charts began but the rate of change is slowing rapidly as consumers adjust to change. The decline is slowing and consumer confidence is not falling as fast.

The war in Ukraine didn’t result in the feared escalation, prices at the pumps are gradually decreasing, rampant price increases are easing and the supermarkets will soon be having their price battles again.

We will have another wobble in October when new energy prices are reviewed - but that has been well forecasted and plans should be in place to deal with it!


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